The Distribution of Victimization in the Population

By Tim Hope, Alan Trickett
English

This paper addresses the issue of determining the appropriate theoretical model for explaining the frequency distribution typically observed in self-report household crime victimisation surveys of general adult populations. The prevailing approach is characterised as a “double-hurdle model” of exposure to victimisation risk that focuses separately upon the transition, initially, from non-victim to victim (the “lifestyle-exposure” hypothesis) and thence upon the subsequent level of risk (the “repeat victimisation hypothesis”). An alternative model is proposed with the aim of addressing some of the theoretical and empirical difficulties with these explanations. This “immunity hypothesis” is in the form of a compoundPoisson generalisation of the Negative Binomial statistical distribution. Its chief difference from the current approach is its assumption of a general tendency towards “immunity” rather than “exposure to risk.” Some longitudinal crime victimisation survey data are analysed that provide empirical support. Briefly, conclusions are drawn about the implications for future crime victimisation research on general populations.

Keywords

  • CRIME VICTIMSZATION SURVEYS
  • REPEAT VICTIMISATION
  • EXPOSURE TO RISK
  • IMMUNITY FROM CRIME
  • POISSON DISTRIBUTION
  • NEGATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRI - BUTION
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