The objective of this article is to cast a critical glance at the Canadian approach to the management of federal sentences of imprisonment, a model that is often regarded as ideal. Based on a study using qualitative and quantitative data, it appears that a significant number of prisoners who are classified as high risks, and who consequently do not profit from early release, return successfully to the community. In this context, one can question the extent to which the risk prediction model in use should be described as a failure. The seriousness of the offence seems to dominate evaluations and actuarial predictions, and the tools developed to support decision-making rely too heavily on invariable and redundant criteria. It is argued that risk management overemphasizes the public’s concern with safety and security, and downplays the roles and responsibilities of the actors.